Major Ice Storm Threat for Southern Ontario This Weekend

A significant winter storm is set to impact Southern Ontario this weekend, bringing multiple rounds of freezing rain that could lead to dangerous travel conditions and widespread power outages. This long-duration event is expected to begin Friday evening and could last through Monday.

Two Rounds of Freezing Rain

Round One (Friday Evening - Saturday)

  • Greater Toronto Area (GTA): Initial freezing rain Friday evening, transitioning to rain overnight. Areas north of the city and along the escarpment are at higher risk for prolonged freezing rain. The GTA could see up to 10mm of freezing rain and maybe up to 20mm!
  • Central Ontario (Barrie, Collingwood, Muskoka): 10-15+ hours of freezing rain possible with ice accretion of 10-20mm.
  • Eastern Ontario (Kingston, Peterborough): Significant freezing rain with potential ice accretion of 20-30mm.
  • Ottawa Valley: Primarily snow, with accumulations of 10-20cm expected.
  • Southwestern Ontario (Windsor, London): Rain with temperatures remaining above freezing.

Round Two (Sunday - Monday)

A second wave of precipitation will move in Sunday, with freezing rain redeveloping across much of the same areas. The exact track of this system remains uncertain, with two possible scenarios:

  1. Northern Track (More Likely):

    • Warmer air pushes north, changing freezing rain to rain for most of Southern Ontario
    • Freezing rain shifts to Sudbury and North Bay regions
    • Heavy snow from Wawa to Timmins

  2. Southern Track:

    • Continued freezing rain for Southwestern Ontario and Golden Horseshoe
    • Potential impacts to Monday morning commute
    • Accumulating snow in northern regions

precip

Potential Impacts

  • Power Outages: Significant ice accretion could lead to tree damage and power line failures
  • Travel: Extremely hazardous driving conditions, especially on untreated surfaces
  • Duration: Cold temperatures following the storm could keep ice in place for several days

Areas of Greatest Concern

The highest risk for significant icing (10-30mm) includes:

  • Bruce Peninsula (Tobermory, Wiarton)
  • Georgian Bay (Collingwood, Midland)
  • Simcoe County (Barrie, Orillia)
  • Muskoka-Parry Sound
  • Peterborough
  • Kingston region

Preparation Advice

  1. Have an Emergency Kit Ready:

    • Flashlights and batteries
    • Non-perishable food
    • Water supply
    • Battery-powered radio

  2. Protect Your Home:

    • Trim dead tree branches
    • Clear eavestroughs
    • Ensure proper drainage

  3. Travel Considerations:

    • Avoid unnecessary travel
    • Keep emergency supplies in your vehicle
    • Check road conditions before departing

We will continue to monitor this developing situation and provide updates as new information becomes available. Stay safe and prepare for potential power outages that could last several days.

DISCLAIMER: This forecast is based on current model data and is subject to change. Please monitor your local weather alerts and official forecasts for the most up-to-date information.